October 2025 Phoenix Housing Market Trends for Buyers and Sellers

By Jason Penrose

Jason has been licensed since 1999, and is currently one of the top 20 agents in Arizona for homes sold.

What if the housing market hasn’t slowed down as much as people think? Over the past month, I’ve seen numbers that might surprise you, showing rising inventory, steady sales, and a market that’s quietly shifting toward balance. Here’s a quick look back at the last 30 days compared to the same time last year.

Inventory is up 23% compared to last year. In the past month, there were 27,607 active homes on the market compared to 22,403 last year. That’s a 23% increase in inventory. We’re seeing more homes available for buyers, and that increase in supply is one of the biggest changes from last year.

Pending sales remain almost identical to the previous period. Homes pending were 6,975 this year versus 6,970 last year, just a five-home difference. I’ve never seen that before. That’s about as flat as it gets. So while inventory is rising, the number of homes going under contract has stayed almost exactly the same as last year.

Home sales rise while supply moves toward balance. We also saw 6,192 homes sold this year compared to 5,833 last year, a 6.1% increase in homes sold. The months’ supply of inventory went from 3.4 months last year to four months this year, which is a 17.6% increase. That means we’re starting to move toward a more balanced market, which would typically be around a six-month supply.

Interest rates stay steady as buyer and seller activity grows. Interest rates haven’t changed much since the 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed. But that rate cut doesn’t directly affect mortgage rates; mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury, which makes things a little more complicated.

Right now, rates are still in the low sixes for conventional mortgages, and buyers are still buying. At the same time, we’re seeing more sellers come onto the market as inventory grows, which is creating more movement overall.

Canceled and expired listings show ongoing market movement. Even with all this activity, many homes are still coming off the market as canceled and expired listings. There’s a lot happening in the market right now, a lot of moving parts, and that’s why it’s so important to have a clear plan, whether you’re buying or selling.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, give me a call at (602) 738-9943 or email jason@thepenroseteam.com. Let’s talk about your strategy and make sure you’re making the right decision for your situation.