630,000 More Sellers Than Buyers: What That Means for Arizona

By Jason Penrose

Jason has been licensed since 1999, and is currently one of the top 20 agents in Arizona for homes sold.

A national housing report came out recently that has a lot of people talking, and for good reason. The numbers tell a clear story about where the market is right now and what homeowners need to be thinking about.

There are currently about 630,000 more homes on the market for sale than there are buyers. That’s the most ever recorded since they started tracking these numbers back in 2013.

To put that in perspective, just last February, that number was 449,409. So we have added almost 200,000 more homes to that gap in just one year.

Inventory is building. We are seeing more homes go into pre-foreclosure. There are layoffs happening due to AI. All of these things are pushing more people to sell, and there are simply not enough buyers stepping up to absorb that supply.

What does that mean for Arizona homeowners? In most markets right now, things are getting a little soft. Here in Arizona, we are still seeing declining home prices in many areas. The peak of the market was back in 2022, when interest rates went from about 3.22% on mortgages to 7.08%. That was the most aggressive rate hike on mortgages in U.S. history.

Since then, prices in most cases have been steadily declining throughout the Valley. The market has not crashed, but prices are not as high as they were in 2022.

That means a lot of people who bought homes in 2022, 2023, or 2024, unless they put a significant down payment or invested heavily in improvements, could be looking at a home that is worth less than what they paid for it.

We are starting to see people selling out of need, not out of want. Something changed in their life and they need to make a move.

People are asking me what they should do: sell now or wait five to ten years? In my experience, most homeowners fall into one of two buckets.

• A homeowner who is concerned about a repeat of 2008. They don’t want to take a chance or be stuck in their home for the next decade. They would rather make a move now, get settled somewhere they are comfortable, and know they are in a good position for the next ten years.
• A homeowner who doesn’t care if the market drops. They are staying put regardless. If prices decline, they decline. They are not going anywhere for the next decade.

I’m not saying a housing crisis is going to happen. What I’m saying is that we have a softening market, and there are not enough buyers to keep pace with the inventory coming on. So the question is simple: pick the place you want to be for the next decade.

If you are where you are and you are comfortable, that is perfectly fine. But if you are sitting in a home you only planned to stay in for a year or two, and you are not sure about the long term, it might be worth looking at making a move sooner rather than later.

If you know anyone thinking about buying or selling a home, please forward this video. And if you want to talk about your specific situation, reach out. Call me at (602) 738-9943 or email me at jason@thepenroseteam.com. You can also visit buyaztoday.com and read the full report linked below the video. I look forward to hearing from you soon.