Arizona Real Estate Market Update: The Last 30 Days

By Jason Penrose

Jason has been licensed since 1999, and is currently one of the top 20 agents in Arizona for homes sold.

If you’ve been hearing that the housing market is in trouble, the last 30 days in Arizona tell a quieter story. Compare where we are now to a year ago, and the numbers have barely moved, even with rates higher than most people expected. That steadiness is the real headline, and for anyone thinking about buying or selling, most of it works in your favor.

Here’s a recap of the last 30 days in our Arizona market, with a look back at where we were a year ago. Some of what’s changed might surprise you, and most of it works in your favor whether you’re buying or selling.

The year-over-year numbers barely moved. Right now there are 26,518 homes on the market, compared to 26,941 last year, a 1.6% dip in active inventory. Homes under contract sit at 7,433 versus 7,492 a year ago, down about 1.2%. Closings came in at 5,666 against 5,784 last year, a 2.1% decrease. Months of supply of inventory is 4.1 months now, exactly where it was last year. So we’re seeing a slight decline in active inventory, pendings, and sales, but nothing dramatic. The market is running pretty close to where it was twelve months ago.

Higher rates are softening prices a little. A lot of this ties back to rates. Home prices in most markets are continuing to soften a bit, and I think higher rates are a big part of that. Right now we’re around 6.75% on a 30-year fixed rate, and of course that fluctuates day to day. Even so, we’re still seeing plenty of buyers buying, and the active inventory, pendings, and solds aren’t shifting much. You can point to rates or any number of things, but the market is holding pretty equal to last year.

Sellers are flexible, so buyers have room to work. One thing I’m seeing clearly is sellers being flexible on price when they negotiate with buyers. That makes it a genuinely good time to buy, because you can take your time, compare homes, and make an offer without the pressure of ten other people bidding against you.

It’s also a good time to sell, and here’s why. This is a good market for sellers too, because you have inventory to choose from when you make your own move. Think back a few years to when the market was super hot. You could sell your home, get multiple offers, and bid your price up, but then finding a home to buy was hard. If you found one, there were probably three or four other offers on it, if not ten, so you’d overpay just to secure it because so little was available. This is one of the reasons our market has been working its way back to normal, and it’s a healthier setup for everyone.

Every market has challenges, but this one gives you options. What makes this market great is that you actually have options, and we’re starting to see people move because of it. There are still open questions, like whether the Fed is going to cut rates and what that would do to the market, and I’ll cover that in another video. For now, the takeaway is that steady numbers and flexible sellers add up to real opportunity on both sides.

If you have any questions about buying or selling in Arizona, or you want to talk through what these numbers mean for your situation, I’d love to help. Call or text me at (602) 738-9943, email me at jason@thepenroseteam.com, or visit buyaztoday.com. I look forward to hearing from you soon.