2026 Arizona Housing Market Forecast for Buyers & Sellers

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in 2026, you’re probably feeling a mix of excitement and anxiety. Will the market boom or are we headed for a crash? I get it. This is a big decision, and the uncertainty can be stressful.

Let’s take a look at the main things that drive home prices and how they impact the housing market.

Why jobs matter for home prices. Employment is one of the biggest drivers of the housing market. When job opportunities are strong, unemployment stays low, and large companies move into an area, home prices tend to stabilize or move higher.

On the other hand, when layoffs happen and people lose their jobs, many homeowners may feel forced to sell. They often put their homes on the market to access their equity or to move to areas with better job opportunities.

In short, jobs have a major influence on the housing market, and paying attention to employment trends can offer clues about where home prices may go.

How lower rates change buyer behavior. Another major factor is interest rates. When interest rates go down, two important things happen:

1. More buyers can qualify for a mortgage, opening the door for people who couldn’t buy before.

2. Homeowners who currently have low-rate loans may finally consider moving if current rates are closer to their existing rates.

Lower rates can give both buyers and sellers more flexibility, which can drive more market activity and potentially support home prices.

The role of the economy and fear. Beyond jobs and interest rates, the overall economy and market confidence also play a role. When people feel uncertain or fearful about the future, they often stay put rather than buy or sell.

A strong economy encourages action. When people feel confident, they are more likely to make decisions about moving, buying, or selling. When fear dominates, the market slows down.

As we head into 2026, jobs, interest rates, and the economy will shape the housing market. I’ll share monthly updates to help you understand trends and make informed decisions.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, reach out to me anytime at (602) 738-9943 or email jason@thepenroseteam.com. Feel free to share this with friends and family. I’d be happy to speak with them as well and offer guidance on today’s marketplace.